School Planning Technical Team

2018 Initial Report

August 31, 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

INTRODUCTION 4

INITIAL SPTT FINDINGS 6

Topic 1: Data, information, analyses, and resources available from SPS, the City, and other entities that can inform SPS district-wide enrollment projections 6

Topic 2: How SPS and the City are working together to address capacity issues with schools 13

Topic 3: Enrollment Projections for Downtown High School 14

NEXT STEPS 17

APPENDICES 18

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 2018, Seattle Public Schools (SPS) and the City of Seattle (City) formed the School Planning Technical Team (SPTT) to increase coordination on planning for Seattle's growth and school capacity. SPTT's work was called-for in the Seattle Public Schools and City of Seattle Public Process Partnership Agreement: SPS Facilities, Fort Lawton, Memorial Stadium, and Seattle Center, 11/20/17. SPTT will be an ongoing work group, and its initial 2018 scope of work focused on the following key topics:

1. Identifying and sharing data, information, analyses, and resources available from SPS, the City and other entities that can inform SPS district-wide enrollment projections

2. Examining how SPS and the City work together to address school capacity issues

3. Analyzing enrollment projections for a Downtown high school

SPTT highlights the following key conclusions from this report:

1. School enrollment planning is informed by an extensive assortment of SPS and City data including housing permit data, housing and population data from the City's Comprehensive Plan, and many other data sources from local, state and federal agencies, academic institutions, and private entities. SPS student enrollment projections and City growth data specifically inform planning and decision-making for a potential Downtown high school.

2. SPS and the City work together closely on school enrollment and capacity planning. The formation of SPTT has led to better-informed planning within SPS and the City. SPTT formalizes and strengthens the work that was already happening between SPS and the City and develops new ways to increase collaboration around school enrollment and capacity planning. Through SPTT, SPS and the City have identified additional data sources, made one another aware of data of which each was previously unaware, increased their understanding of each other's planning processes, identified new ways to support one another, and enhanced communication about new development project policies and trends. Additionally, SPS and City demographers will continue to meet regularly to exchange information on school capacity, enrollment planning, and other relevant topics.

SPTT will make an annual SPTT report to SPS and the City to summarize activities from the previous year, and an outline of its work plan activities in subsequent years.

3. Enrollment projection data indicates a shortage of high school capacity by 2027 suggesting a need for a new Downtown high school. SPS' most recent enrollment projections suggest a significant increase in grade 9-12 students by 2027. Projections indicate a 13-15% shortage of high school seats north of the Lake Washington Ship Canal by the 2026-2027 school year. SPS staff and Board are considering the need for a new Downtown high school to accommodate this student increase. SPS will further analyze the need for a new high school in the fall of 2018 during the Facilities Master Plan Update.

INTRODUCTION

This report by the School Planning Technical Team (SPTT) describes how Seattle Public Schools (SPS or district) and the City of Seattle (City) Office of Planning and Community Development (OPCD) are increasing coordination of their planning processes related to Seattle's growth and school capacity planning. The work of the SPTT, a collaborative team of SPS and City staff, was called-for in the Seattle Public Schools and City of Seattle Public Process Partnership Agreement: SPS Facilities, Fort Lawton, Memorial Stadium, and Seattle Center, 11/20/17 ("Agreement").

SPTT will be an ongoing work group, and its initial 2018 scope of work focused on the following key topics:

1. Data, information, analyses, and resources available from SPS, the City and other entities that can inform SPS district-wide enrollment projections

2. How SPS and the City work together to address school capacity issues

3. Enrollment projections for a Downtown high school

SPTT members worked collaboratively from February through June 2018 to develop a scope of work, share information associated with scope of work tasks, and compose an initial response to the three topics above. This report documents SPTT work and observations to-date which the team will refine and augment as its work continues. Through its ongoing work, SPTT aims to solidify more collaborative planning processes and provide information to guide future decisions (see Appendix A which defines future SPTT follow up actions). SPTT will provide an annual report to SPS and City leaders every December that describes SPTT's work over the prior year and work plan anticipated for the subsequent year.

Background

SPTT was formed to implement parts of the Agreement that relate to school capacity planning:

"Work collaboratively to address school planning capacity needs."

"The Parties both prioritize the values of equity and inclusion in planning processes, design and function of new facilities and school capacity planning to meet the needs of students, familiesand the community."

"City is committed to be an active partner with SPS to implement an efficient and reasonable planning, permitting, and construction process."

"SPS and the City will jointly form technical teams for visioning, joint planning, siting, inter-relationships among facilities, and design."

In addition, the Agreement states, "SPS and the City will coordinate and cooperate on opportunities for Memorial Stadium and school facilities at Seattle Center that will be cohesive and integrate well with the campus." As part of this work, SPS and the City have begun preliminary planning for a potential high school at Seattle Center.

One of OPCD's functions is to develop strategies to support SPS' planning for public school facility needs consistent with the City's Comprehensive Plan policies and growth forecast. The development of this report in part fulfills this function. This report is also being provided to the Seattle City Council to report on OPCD's accomplishments related to its role (Statement of Legislative Intent 134-1-A-2-2017).

SPTT Members

As envisioned in the Agreement, the Staff Leadership Team, comprised of management from SPS and the City, formed SPTT to consider and address school planning and capacity issues. SPTT includes the following representatives:

Seattle Public Schools (SPS)

o Becky Asencio, K-12 Planning Coordinator, Capital Projects and Planning

o Richard Best, Director, Capital Projects and Planning

o Ashley Davies, Director, Enrollment Planning

o Flip Herndon, Associate Superintendent for Capital, Facilities, and Enrollment Planning

o Stephen Nielsen, Deputy Superintendent

o Natasha Rivers, District Demographer, Enrollment Planning

City of Seattle (City)

o Sam Assefa, Director, Office of Planning and Community Development

o Diana Canzoneri, Demographer & Strategic Advisor

o Tom Hauger, former Comprehensive Planning Manager, Office of Planning and Community Development (through May 2018)

o Michael Hubner, Long Range Planning Manager, Office of Planning and Community Development (as of June 2018)

o Jackie Kirn, Strategic Advisor, Office of the Waterfront and Civic Projects

o Susan McLain, Chief of Staff, Office of Planning and Community Development

Facilitation Team Triangle Associates, Inc.

o Evan Lewis, Support

o Bob Wheeler, Facilitator

Other SPTT Resources

Other agencies and City departments that provide SPTT important information and data include:

Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC)

Seattle Housing Authority

Downtown Seattle Association

Seattle Department of Education and Early Learning

Seattle Department of Transportation

Seattle Parks and Recreation Department

Seattle Office of Housing

Initial SPTT Efforts and Products

SPTT drafted an initial scope of work with tasks to develop information, data, and analysis jointly generated by SPS and the City (see Appendix B), and then developed information to address these tasks. This report is a compilation of the information and findings responding to each scope of work task. SPTT gave an interim report to the School Board at its March 28, 2018 BEX V work session and responded to School Board members' questions that were asked at that meeting (see Appendix C).

INITIAL SPTT FINDINGS

Topic 1: Data, information, analyses, and resources available from SPS, the City, and other entities that can inform SPS district-wide enrollment projections

Background

SPTT members are learning from each other and developing a sense of how various data and information can be helpful for SPS enrollment projections. SPS and City demographers regularly exchange data and analyses relevant to enrollment. SPS and the City also continue to seek new data from outside sources (other governmental, academic, and private data) to inform enrollment projections and planning.

SPS Data and Resources

SPS Enrollment Planning calculates enrollment projections, studies the district's demographics, determines class numbers at option schools and choice seats at attendance area schools, proposes changes to school boundaries when population trends change, and produces maps using student data.

SPS Capacity Planning and Management works to balance the number of students at each school with the space available and to address two major pressures on school capacity; increased enrollment growth and state funding of class size reduction in grades K-3. Capacity Planning and Management monitors changes in enrollment, demographics and program demand, including capital development and program placement, and makes recommendations for possible actions to ensure that school building and regional capacity match with enrollment, demographic and program changes.

When considering enrollment projections, SPS makes a five-year projection using birth data, grade progression rates, and other factors. Projections between zero and five years are more reliable than between five and 10 years. However, to plan for capacity school facilities and levies, SPS must use a 10-year planning timeframe and applies the enrollment projection for the first five years and then simply extrapolates that projection for years 6-10.

City Data and Resources

Key information to inform SPS enrollment projections comes from the City's planning under the Washington State Growth Management Act (GMA). The City's planned growth reflects Seattle's status as the central city in the county, with a strong local economy and an ongoing commitment to be a leader in planning for compact livable communities. Under the GMA, the City must accommodate growth through its zoning and infrastructure. Seattle 2035, the City's Comprehensive Plan (Comprehensive Plan), is the City's primary tool to plan for population, housing, and employment growth over a 20-year period and provides the City's growth planning vision and policy framework. (See Topic 1.1 below for a detailed discussion).

Other Data and Resources

The following additional data sources, identified throughout Topic 1 will inform SPS enrollment projections:

SPS historical enrollment data by grade level;

Regional data, such as Land Use Vision (LUV) allocations from PSRC. LUV is a policy-based allocation of future population based on regional macroeconomic forecasts to 2040;

City of Seattle residential permit data, including information on the amount, types and locations of housing built and permitted;

Growth management projections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) and the estimated share that the City is planning for over the next 20 years;

County birth data; and

U.S. Census Bureau data, including the decennial census and the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS); a nationwide survey that gathers information on demographic, social, economic, and housing characteristics from a sample of the population on a continual basis.

SPS and the City will continue to exchange information to improve their understanding of data, patterns and trends that can inform SPS enrollment projections and City planning for children.

Topic 1.1: City population and housing growth data that may be useful for school enrollment and capacity planning

Information from the City's Comprehensive Plan and permit data can inform both SPS school enrollment and capacity planning.

City Comprehensive Plan Data

The Comprehensive Plan assumes the City will grow by 70,000 housing units by 2035. This is to accommodate a share of the county-level population projection produced by OFM. Seattle's share of growth is based on policy targets adopted by the Growth Management Planning Council (GMPC), a multi-jurisdiction policy-making body within King County, and is guided by VISION 2040, the regional growth management plan adopted by PSRC. As such, the City's growth assumption is more "policy" than "forecast."

The Urban Village Strategy is the heart of the Comprehensive Plan. It directs most of the City's growth to urban centers and villages and estimates future growth for each of those designated places. Understanding areas where growth will be concentrated in the future can be useful to SPS enrollment projections. More information on Seattle's growth estimates, including the 20-year growth estimates for each of Seattle's urban centers and villages, is described in Appendix D.

The Comprehensive Plan also identifies information about public facilities owned by the City and other agencies. SPS provides the City with data on future school needs, such as location and size of existing facilities, that inform the Capital Facilities Element of the Comprehensive Plan. It contains a map of existing SPS schools, a description of SPS's 2012 Facilities Master Plan (which is being updated in 2018), current enrollment, and strategies to address future needs.

The City tracks key indicators and trends against goals and assumptions in the Comprehensive Plan. Recent residential growth in the City greatly exceeds the annualized rate that results in achieving the planned 70,000 housing units by 2035. Additionally, the number of potential new units in the permitting pipeline suggests this strong rate of growth could continue over the next several years. The City assumes market fluctuations in employment and residential growth will occur within its 20-year comprehensive planning period, but it does not attempt to predict the timing of these fluctuations. With significant uncertainty about future market trends, it is not possible to accurately project long-term growth from recent trends.

Leading up to the next major Comprehensive Plan update in 2023, both PSRC and the GMPC will update regional and county growth strategies and targets that will be informed by recent population forecasts. These forecasts indicate the potential need to plan for a higher rate of growth for the subsequent 20-year planning period.

SPS enrollment is affected in various ways by overall growth and economic conditions. While housing growth can add families to the District, adding 70,000 housing units by 2035 does not provide understanding of school enrollment growth. A strong economy attracting the demographic of highly-skilled employees can slow enrollment growth. For example, data shows a strong correlation between decreasing unemployment and a decreasing enrollment growth rate.

City Permit Data

While the Comprehensive Plan and citywide monitoring provide perspective on long-range growth prospects, data on residential permitting, which the City compiles regularly, may more readily inform enrollment planning at a scale and time frame of interest to the district. The City has provided SPS with permit data on the amount, type, and location of housing permit activity. These data add to SPS data on students in multifamily versus single family homes and by region of the City (middle school service areas).

Follow-Up Action for Topic 1.1:

OPCD provided SPS Enrollment Planning staff with information about how staff can access permit data tables and maps on the City's website. City staff are also working with Enrollment Planning staff to identify additional permit-related information that would be of use to SPS.

Topic 1.2: Information on the movement of households with children into and out of the City and its neighborhoods, and inside and outside of enrollment in SPS schools

As Seattle continues to grow and housing values increase, there is interest in the demographics of those arriving and leaving residences in the City, particularly by region or neighborhood, as it relates to school capacity and enrollment projections. There is some demographic information available on new Seattle residents, but very limited information on residents leaving the City. SPTT lacks adequate data to directly address this issue of households moving into or out of the City and SPS schools. The following data sources partly address this topic.

SPS Information on Household Movement

SPS accounts for the movement of students, both residents living in Seattle and non-residents living outside of Seattle, as follows:

1) Students leaving and moving within the district are accounted for in the SPS grade progression model. SPS compares the total number of residents enrolled in one year at a grade and compares this to how many enroll for the next year at the next sequential grade. Additional details:

o Students leaving the district (and not continuing at SPS as a non-resident) cause the grade progression ratio to decrease.

o Students not moving (and continuing at SPS) continue to be counted and cause the grade progression ratio to be closer to 1.

o Students moving within the district (and continuing at SPS) continue to be counted and also cause the grade progression ratio to be closer to 1.

o Students moving from outside (new enrollment at SPS) cause the grade progression ratio to increase.

2) Non-residents enrolled in the district are modeled by using the prior year's enrollment of non-residents as the base assumption for the following year.

Additionally, at the March 28, 2018 School Board meeting, SPTT presented maps from SPS showing the percentage change in K-12 students by Elementary Attendance Area. Data showed a decrease in K-12 resident growth in Southeast Seattle and an increase in Central, North, and West Seattle (see Appendix E). However, the drivers of these changes are not fully understood. Not all decisions about leaving an area are driven by economic considerations. However, there is evidence that family movement from areas such as Southeast Seattle may be associated with neighborhood gentrification and may be the result of indirect economic displacement of families. SPS and the City will continue to seek data and insights into this issue.

City Information on Household Movement

The City's long-term net growth management projections are not affected by people moving into and out of the City on a yearly basis. While the county-level Growth Management projections from OFM are broken out by natural increase (births minus deaths) and residual net migration, these data are not available at a local level for City of Seattle. County-level projections from OFM also include projections for ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19. The 20-year residential growth estimates in the City's Comprehensive Plan refer only to a minimum number of net new housing units for which the City is planning and do not determine the composition of the households in those units or the age distribution of the population.

With respect to short-term trends, limited information on the movement of individuals and families is available from the ACS. Estimates for the city as a whole are released annually for 1-year and 5-year periods. However, ACS estimates for small subsets of the population and small areas can have large margins of error. Also, neighborhood-level data are only available as 5-year estimates. The ACS provides:

Foreign-born place of birth and information on when immigrants moved to the U.S.;

Information on when householders moved into their housing unit;

Numbers and demographic characteristics of people who moved into their current residence in the prior year and from where they moved; and

Numbers and limited demographic characteristics of people who moved out of residences in Seattle (without neighborhood-level disaggregation) in the previous year. These data provide limited information on whether these families have left the City.

Some additional information about household moves will soon be available from the PSRC biennial Household Travel Survey; a transportation-focused survey that also has questions about households' movement to, and within, the region. This four-county survey includes a question about what attracted recent in-movers to their current residence; the City is advocating for a question to be added in 2019 to understand why recent out-movers left their previous residence. Results from the 2017 survey are available on the PSRC website.

Follow-Up Actions for Topic 1.2:

While data are clearly lacking to fully address this topic of household moves into and out of Seattle, SPTT will continue to search for and analyze data about this topic. The Team will utilize a wide variety of publicly and privately available data sources to assemble as part of the SPTT as a clearinghouse of information on this topic.

Specific follow-up actions are listed here:

SPS will use student enrollment and residential data to measure mobility, including movement of students within the district and out of the district, and share findings with SPTT.

SPS will also track students leaving the district, and students changing residences but continuing enrollment in SPS.

SPS and the City will contact other entities (e.g., Zillow) to request data or observations that could provide additional insights into trends affecting numbers and ages of children in Seattle neighborhoods, especially in and around Downtown and other urban centers. City staff have ongoing relationships with the University of Washington Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Seattle/King County Public Health, Seattle, and King County. City staff will bring questions to researchers at these organizations and share this information with SPTT to review and make findings.

Once 2020 decennial census data are released starting in 2021, SPS and City demographers will use that data, along with other available data, to update their understanding of relevant trends particularly the proportion of children to total households, and the relationship to cost of living changes.

The City will continue to make available published reports and disaggregated data on housing permits. These resources include data on housing types and neighborhood trends that SPS can use to better understand student yield rates across the district. SPS and City demographers will collaborate on data from the upcoming census surveys to gain additional insights.

SPS and the City will also look for ways to partner on Census 2020 Complete Count outreach leading up to the 2020 census.

Topic 1.3: Existing residential permit data and how it informs SPS enrollment planning

SPS uses housing permit data to estimate elementary, middle and high school student yield rates. See the 2nd attachment within Appendix C showing student yield rates. Residential permit data, including information on permits issued and not yet built, can be viewed in maps and reports or downloaded using this tool on the City's Population & Demographics webpage. The following are available with this tool:

Citywide: New/Demo by Unit Type; Land Use Zone

Urban Centers/Villages: Growth Report; Detail by Center/Village

Neighborhoods: Growth Report; Detail by Neighborhood

The City publishes a quarterly report that shows units built and permitted by urban village. The most recent quarterly report is found as an attachment within Appendix C and shows new units by urban village (for the 2018 quarter 1). The City has additional data about units permitted but not built. The City is in the process of shifting its permit database from one system to another which is temporarily affecting the City's ability to publish some data.

SPS has a good understanding of what permit data is available. As noted in the SPTT responses under Topic 1.1, the City has also provided SPS detailed residential permit data that include the amount and location of permit activity on the number, type (single-family, townhouse, multi-family, etc.), and location of housing units that have been built or approved. However, these data do not include the number of bedrooms or new residents.

SPS is in the process of generating the student yield rates for the 2017-18 school year. Housing permit data is not incorporated into the SPS projection model, but rather is used as an additional analysis tool to understand City growth and estimates the number of students who enroll in SPS by housing type, specifically apartments, condos, and single-family homes.

Follow-Up Action for Topic 1.3

SPS and City staff will continue to review permit data to determine how it is meaningful for enrollment planning.

Topic 1.4: How SPS and the City plan to accommodate families with children and mitigate their displacement

SPTT understands there is a concern that the younger adult demographic groups driving Seattle's growth may leave the City when they start families or their children reach school-age. SPTT also understands the concern about a shortage of multi-family accommodations large enough for families. The Seattle Planning Commission produced a report on this very issue, found at this link: Family-Sized Housing Action Agenda.

SPS Partnership with Seattle Housing Authority (SHA)

Seattle's rapid growth continues to present challenges and opportunities for those who live, work, and attend school here. Over 45,000 Seattle households pay more than half their income for housing. SPS and SHA are engaged in the Seattle Housing Authority-Seattle Public Schools Partnership, an innovative partnership to support the educational success and leadership of over 5,500 scholars that attend SPS schools and utilize SHA's housing programs.

SPS's Homeless/Displaced Families

The SPS McKinney-Vento Homeless Program is intended to provide students with access to education so they can continue to fully participate in school. Students experiencing homelessness have the right to remain in their school of origin or enroll in the local attendance area school nearest to their nighttime residence. SPS provides transportation for these students.

City's Efforts to Mitigate Displacement

The City's OPCD and Office of Housing provided the following information, summarized in Table 1, regarding the City's programs and accommodations for family-sized housing and livability for families with children.

Table 1: Family-Oriented Housing Programs and Accommodations

Mandatory Housing Affordability (MHA) proposed legislation Expanding Residential Small Lot (RSL) zoning: As part of proposed MHA legislation, the amount of RSL zoning citywide would increase from about four acres currently to 767 acres or about 650 city blocks. RSL zoning encourages moderately-sized homeownership opportunities in the 1,200 1,600 sq. ft. range that are conducive to families. New construction in RSL would likely be attached duplexes, cottages, or smaller stand-alone single-family homes.

New family-sized housing requirement in low-rise multi-family zones: As a part of proposed MHA legislation, the city would add a new requirement for one family-sized housing unit required for every four market-rate housing units in new construction in the low-rise one multi-family zone.

Locating more housing near parks and schools: One of the principles for MHA implementation is to add more housing near parks and schools. In many instances this means adding aforementioned RSL or LR1 zoning in blocks near to existing schools, allowing more homes conducive to families that have convenient access to schools via walking or biking.

University District urban design framework Recently passed U-District legislation added a family-sized housing incentive in up-zoned areas. The new standards incentivize not only size of housing unit, but also design aspects of buildings that are supportive for families.

Accessory Dwelling Units The City is evaluating Land Use Code changes that would make it easier for property owners to build accessory dwelling units (ADUs) or small secondary units within the main house or in the rear yard of a lot in a single-family zone. The objective of the proposal is to encourage ADU production and increase the variety and number of housing options in single-family zones. ADUs are a family-friendly housing type because they are typically located in quiet residential areas, close to parks and schools, and with privacy and outdoor yard space.

One code change under consideration is to increase the size limit for backyard cottages to 1,000 square feet so that two-bedroom ADUs suitable to families with children could be more feasible (only about two percent of Seattle's 135,000 single-family-zoned lots have an ADU). The median sales price for a single-family house in Seattle is nearly $800,000. Increasing ADU production is one way to create new rental housing options in the roughly two-thirds of the city with single-family zoning.

Multi-family Property Tax Exemption (MFTE) Program The MFTE Program provides a tax exemption on new multi-family buildings in exchange for setting aside 20-25% of the units as income- and rent-restricted. The program's requirements are structured to provide incentives for projects to include two-bedroom or larger units.

Under the current MFTE program, the income-restricted affordable two- and three-bedroom units in the program must have rents affordable with incomes of no higher than 85% and 90% of AMI, respectively. About 500 two- and three-bedroom units are currently renting more affordably exclusively because of MFTE restrictions.

Office of Housing Rental Housing Program The City of Seattle Office of Housing's Rental Housing Program funds acquisition, construction, and rehabilitation of property to provide housing that serves low-income households. A mix of unit sizes and amenities to accommodate families, including large families, is a priority for new construction projects. The housing is typically located near transportation and local services and amenities, giving low-wage workers the option to forgo a vehicle, and providing safe access to schools, parks, transit, and community facilities serving families with children.

To date, the City has funded over 240 two-, three-, four-, and five-bedroom homes for low-income families through its Rental Housing Program, which is largely funded through the Seattle Housing Levy.

Office of Housing Homeownership Program The Seattle Office of Housing Homeownership Program funds may be used to assist in the site acquisition and/or development of land and homes to be sold to eligible homebuyers as resale restricted homes. These are homes that are subject to recorded restrictions intended to require resale at a sales price that is likely to be affordable to a low-income homebuyer.

Program policies provide a higher maximum per unit subsidy of $90,000 for homes with three or more bedrooms.

The City's Equitable Development Initiative (EDI) is also working to address displacement and reduce disparities in access to opportunity to sustain a diverse Seattle. The EDI fosters community capacity and provides funding targeted towards communities that are experiencing displacement pressures, many of which are communities of color and low-income communities. While EDI is not limited to families with children, the initiative addresses challenges facing these families, many of whom are at high risks of displacement. More information is available on the OPCD's website, found here, and the City's Equitable Development and Implementation Plan, found here.

Follow-Up Actions for Topic 1.4

SPS and the City will collaborate and share information on potential ways to better understand the movement of households with children. This can help inform the City's planning to accommodateand mitigate displacement offamilies with children and SPS' enrollment and capacity planning.

SPS is updating student yield rates with current year data.

Topic 2: How SPS and the City are working together to address capacity issues with schools

Topic 2 Overview

SPS and the City have historically worked together to address school capacity planning. However, the SPTT has created a formal, ongoing forum for collaboration, improving communication and coordination to better address school capacity planning issues. While only in existence since February 2018, SPTT has already jointly responded to key capacity planning questions, culminating in the development of this initial report.

Each December, SPTT will develop an annual report to identify outcomes from its work during the year and look ahead to its next year's activities and scope of work. This annual report will be sent to SPS and the City from the OPCD Director and SPS Associate Superintendent for Capital, Facilities, and Enrollment Planning. This report will focus on how the City worked with SPS during the year to develop planning strategies that support SPS' public school facility needs for anticipated student population as informed by adopted comprehensive plan policies and growth forecasts.

Topic 2.1: Regular correspondence and meetings that occur to provide SPS input for its reports on district-wide enrollment and capacity planning to the School Board

SPTT's work fulfills the requirements of City Ordinance 124919 that established OPCD which states:

"WHEREAS, a 2015 amendment to the Countywide Planning Policies approved by the Growth Management Planning Council of King County requires coordination between local land use plans and school districts"

Section 3.14.990 Office created---Functions, Section B.5. "In coordination with the Department of Education and Early Learning and in partnership with the Seattle School District No.1, OPCD will develop planning strategies that support the District's public school facility needs for anticipated student population consistent with adopted comprehensive plan policies and growth forecasts."

Since February 2018 SPTT has:

Worked collaboratively to share data and resources;

Involved itself in discussions about a possible Downtown high school and elementary school;

Shared information about City plans, comprehensive plan, housing initiatives and development, and permit data systems;

Reviewed elementary, middle, and high school projections, student yield rates, maps of urban villages, information about homeless student populations and displaced families, student demographics, and 2019 levy facility plans/planning;

Developed a March 28, 2018 presentation and interim report responding to several School Board questions; and

Increased collaboration and insight into City policy and planning processes.

The SPTT facilitator, Triangle Associates, has coordinated SPTT communications and report development.

Follow-Up Actions for Topic 2.1

SPS and the City will continue working on school capacity issues through SPTT and issue an annual report each December.

The SPS Demographer in Enrollment Planning and the City Demographer in OPCD will continue to meet at least quarterly to exchange information and analysis on a wide range of relevant topics. They will also identify enhanced processes for informing and obtaining input from others within and outside SPS and the City. The OPCD and SPS demographers will continue to exchange data on affordable housing, racial segregation, fair housing, and regional planning and SPS forecasts.

Topic 2.2: How the City will continue to use information from SPS in its planning work

The City will continue to coordinate with SPS when updating the Comprehensive Plan to include SPS' latest information about SPS and its facility plans. The City will also engage SPS staff when the City plans for particular neighborhoods as a way to share important growth-related information and identify collaboration opportunities.

Follow-Up Actions for Topic 2.2

The next Comprehensive Plan update will be a multi-year effort culminating in adoption in 2023. Until then, OPCD will work on community plans in various neighborhoods. For those plans, OPCD will consult with SPS staff regarding existing schools in the area, their status, and capacity. OPCD will also update SPS staff about possible changes to the neighborhood as a result of the plan, especially changes that could affect school enrollment or school facilities.

Topic 3: Enrollment Projections for Downtown High School

Topic 3 Overview:

SPS capital construction levies are proposed on a six-year cycle in a Building Excellence (BEX) levy, alternating three years later with a six-year Building, Technology and Academics (BTA) levy. The BEX V levy will be on the ballot in February 2019 and BTA V is scheduled for 2022. SPS's Enrollment Planning Department develops five-year enrollment projections which are updated annually. To properly plan for a proposed construction levy, SPS must evaluate its capacity needs over a 10-year time frame to best estimate future capacity needs and plan for construction and funding. As stated earlier, this 10-year planning timeframe uses the more accurate 5-year enrollment projection and then makes an extrapolation for years 6-10. (See page 6, Initial SPTT Findings, Topic 1, Background, SPS Data and Resources section).

Topic 3.1: Recent data and information available to inform Downtown High School projections

Available Data and Information to Inform Downtown High School Projections

Enrollment projection data indicates a shortage of high school capacity north of the Lake Washington Ship Canal, suggesting a need for a new Downtown high school. See SPS 2017-2026 enrollment and capacity projections in Appendix F. These projections will inform planning and decision-making for a Downtown high school. SPS staff gathered and analyzed data on expected growth in the student population for all SPS high schools including the four high school areas nearest a possible Seattle Center school location (Roosevelt, Lincoln, Ballard, and Garfield) as shown in Tables 2 and 3. SPS staff analysis showed a significant increase in the grades 9 12 SPS resident population between 2018 and 2027.

Table 2: SPS High School Projections & Capacity (2017-2026) Central/North High Schools

Ballard, Garfield, Ingraham, Nathan Hale, and Roosevelt

High School Enrollment Planning - Student Enrollment/Projections Capital Planning - Student Enrollment Trends

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Total

9-12 Student Projections 7681 8027 8178 8114 8059 7938 8382 8508 8633 8759 8884

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 7211 7211 7211 7711 7711 7711 7711 7711 7711 7711 7711

Surplus/(Shortage) (470) (816) (967) (403) (348) (227) (671) (797) (922) (1048) (1173)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -7% -11% -13% -5% -5% -3% -9% -10% -12% -14% -15%

Ballard

9-12 Student Projections

1798

1882

1975

1842

1787

1742

1908

1936

1965

1993

2021

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606 1606

Surplus/(Shortage) (192) (276) (369) (236) (181) (136) (302) (330) (359) (387) (415)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -12% -17% -23% -15% -11% -8% -19% -21% -22% -24% -26%

Garfield

9-12 Student Projections

1716

1774

1769

1788

1708

1613

1743

1752

1762

1771

1781

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594 1594

Surplus/(Shortage) (122) (180) (175) (194) (114) (19) (149) (158) (168) (177) (187)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -8% -11% -11% -12% -7% -1% -9% -10% -11% -11% -12%

Ingraham Addition

9-12 Student Projections 1305 1342 1336 1536 1596 1718 1735 1808 1881 1954 2027

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 1196 1196 1196 1696 1696 1696 1696 1696 1696 1696 1696

Surplus/(Shortage) (109) (146) (140) 160 100 (22) (39) (112) (185) (258) (331)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -9% -12% -12% 9% 6% -1% -2% -7% -11% -15% -19%

Nathan Hale

9-12 Student Projections

1147

1189

1160

1200

1244

1256

1245

1256

1268

1280

1291

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096 1096

Surplus/(Shortage) (51) (93) (64) (104) (148) (160) (149) (160) (172) (184) (195)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -5% -8% -6% -9% -14% -15% -14% -15% -16% -17% -18%

Roosevelt

9-12 Student Projections

1715

1840

1938

1748

1724

1609

1752

1755

1758

1761

1764

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719 1719

Surplus/(Shortage) 4 (121) (219) (29) (5) 110 (33) (36) (39) (42) (45)

% Surplus/(Shortage) 0% -7% -13% -2% 0% 6% -2% -2% -2% -2% -3%

Table 3: SPS High School Projections & Capacity (2017-2026) Central/North High Schools

Ballard, Garfield, Roosevelt

High School Enrollment Planning - Student Enrollment/Projections Capital Planning - Student Enrollment Trends

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Total

9-12 Student Projections 5229 5496 5682 5378 5219 4964 5403 5444 5485 5525 5566

9-12 Right-sized Capacity 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919 4919

Surplus/(Shortage) (310) (577) (763) (459) (300) (45) (484) (525) (566) (606) (647)

% Surplus/(Shortage) -6% -12% -16% -9% -6% -1% -10% -11% -11% -12% -13%

These projections suggest a significant increase in grade 9-12 students by 2026 with a 13-15% shortage of high school seats north of the Lake Washington Ship Canal by the 2026-2027 school year. SPS staff and the Board are considering the need for a new Downtown high school to accommodate this student increase. SPS will further analyze the need for a new high school in the fall of 2018 during the Facilities Master Plan Update.

Note that no decision has been made by the School Board about building a Downtown high school including school offerings and attendance areas.

SPTT Follow-Up Actions for Topic 3.1:

New five-year projections will be reviewed in the fall of 2018 as part of the Facilities Master Plan update that will help inform the need for and timing of a Downtown high school.

Topic 3.2: What existing cohort data suggests for high school extrapolations beyond five-years

Projections are less reliable the further out in time they are made because there is a greater likelihood of trend changes. SPS can use current data and five-year projections to extrapolate projections over a longer period of time, but it can be challenging to anticipate changes in the grade progression rate which limits the accuracy of the projections.

See Appendix F for the five-year elementary, middle, and high school projections developed by SPS Enrollment Planning, with a 10-year-trend analysis developed by Capital Planning compared to existing capacity for 2017-2027. The analysis provides four estimates: student projections, right-size capacity, surplus capacity, and percent surplus capacity.

SPTT Follow-Up Actions for Topic 3.2

No follow up actions are needed for this topic.

Topic 3.3: How students get to school, and how transit gets students to a potential Downtown high school

How students get to school and how transit gets students to a potential Downtown high school depends on student age and distance to schools. However, Seattle Center has very good transit service from the surrounding area and throughout Seattle including 14 Metro bus routes that provide direct access to the area from Queen Anne, First Hill, Madrona, Judkins Park, Ballard, Blue Ridge, Wallingford, Magnolia, University District and other locations. Additionally, all high school students now have ORCA cards which increase their transit options, and the Seattle Center Monorail will soon be integrated with the ORCA system. Existing Sound Transit Service will also be expanded with new Sound Transit 2 projects. Many buses provide service to the Westlake Station where transit riders can transfer to the Monorail that directly connects to the Seattle Center campus. In addition, Sound Transit expects to open a light rail station in the vicinity of Seattle Center no later than 2035.

SPTT Follow-Up Actions for Topic 3.3

No follow up actions are needed for this topic.

NEXT STEPS

Through its work to-date, SPS and the City have learned much more from one another about how each entity plans for the future. The SPTT has bolstered and enhanced information SPS needs to make decisions, and solidified an ongoing information-sharing partnership that will benefit SPS and the City long-term. In 2018, SPTT will continue its collaborative work to generate data and information for SPS and City decision-makers and to inform school enrollment and capacity planning. SPTT will also develop an annual report each December to highlight its work for the year and preview work for the subsequent year. See Appendix A which summarizes this report's follow-up actions and Appendix B, Initial Scope of Work.

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Summary of Follow-Up Actions from SPTT Initial Report

Appendix B: SPTT Scope of Work

Appendix C: SPTT Responses to March 28, 2018 School Board BEX V Work Session Questions

Appendix D: Explaining the Estimates of Seattle's Future Growth

Appendix E: 5-Year K-12 Resident and Housing Unit Growth Rate per Elementary School Attendance Area

Appendix F: SPS Enrollment Planning - five-year elementary, middle, and high school projections (2017-2026)